By Lord Fiifi Quayle

Feb. 4, 2026

In the bustling markets of Kejetia and the quiet avenues of Cantonments, a rare sense of economic calm has taken hold. The cedi, long the victim of volatile swings, has found its footing. Inflation, which once soared to heights that crippled household budgets, is finally retreating. For President John Dramani Mahama, who returned to the Flagstaff House just over a year ago, the metrics suggest a leader who has finally mastered the levers of the Ghanaian economy.

But beneath this veneer of stability lies a structural ticking clock. Unlike his predecessors in the Fourth Republic, John Mahama is a man on a deadline. Constrained by a constitutional ceiling that permits only one final four-year act, Mahama’s presidency is fundamentally a lame-duck affair from its inception.

In a nation where the “continuous eight-year cycle” the rhythmic alternation of power between the two dominant parties has become the structural bedrock of political and economic planning, this one-term anomaly is threatening to upend the delicate equilibrium of West Africa’s most stable democracy.

For decades, Ghana’s democracy has followed a predictable, if dysfunctional, rhythm. A new government arrives amidst an economic crisis, often inheriting an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Under the watchful eye of Washington, the government implements painful reforms, stabilizes the currency, and brings down inflation. Then, as the second term approaches and the “eight-year cycle” pressure builds, the discipline evaporates.

“We see this cycle of new governments coming in mostly at times that we are under the IMF,” says a senior management consultant in Accra. “It gets them performing extremely well. But right after getting out of the program, you see the overspending and the recklessness that lands us right back at the IMF before the government leaves office.”

John Dramani Mahama is currently the beneficiary of this discipline. His “Big Push” a $10 billion infrastructure plan and his flagship “24-Hour Economy” initiative are being rolled out under the shadow of the IMF’s current oversight. The results are visible: fuel prices are down, and the fiscal deficit is narrowing. But the real test is not how Mr. Mahama ends his tenure; it is what he leaves behind for his successor.

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) now faces a dilemma that is as much about character as it is about timing. The party is searching for a candidate who can navigate the post-IMF vacuum.

The fear within the party’s inner circles is palpable. When John Mahama departs in 2029, Ghana will likely be out of the IMF’s immediate grasp. The party base will be hungry for patronage; the “Big Push” will require even more capital to sustain; and the temptation to spend to secure a win will be at its peak.

If the successor falters and the economy slides back into the familiar abyss of debt and devaluation, the door swings wide open for the opposition. Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, the former Vice President and current leader of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is already being framed by his supporters as the “Economic Messiah” in waiting, the man who will “save” the country from NDC-led recklessness.

The NDC’s choice is now polarized between two paths. Should they opt for an “old gee” a veteran loyalist willing to serve a single term to bridge the gap? Or should they risk a “young man” who can secure a full eight-year mandate but may inherit a “one-term deficit” if the economic transition fails?

“The party is at a crossroads,” says an NDC insider who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “We need a candidate who is not just a figurehead, but someone with the financial independent influence and iron-fisted control to resist the populist urge to spend. Without the IMF’s ‘No,’ the next leader must have the internal ‘No’ already built in.”

The “3rd tenure” for Mahama is a non-starter; the Ghanaian public has made it clear that constitutional limits are sacrosanct. This leaves the NDC with a narrow window to “balance the imbalance.”

Ghana’s tragedy has often been its inability to sustain the gains made under external supervision. Mahama’s final act is currently a success story, but it is a story written in the margins of a loan agreement.

As the 2028 election looms on the horizon, the question is no longer whether Mr. Mahama will end his tenure well. He almost certainly will. The question is whether the NDC can seize this opportunity to break the IMF cycle, or whether they will inadvertently pave the way for their rivals to claim the mantle of economic salvation. In the high-stakes game of Ghanaian politics, the greatest imbalance may not be the one-term presidency itself, but the vacuum of discipline it leaves in its wake

GHANA MUST WORK AGAIN