Theme: Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation
Date of Presentation: November 13, 2025
Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of Ghana Compiled by: Lord Fiifi Quayle

Executive Summary: Stability and Consolidation

Ghana’s 2026 Budget Statement is a consolidation budget that firmly commits to the fiscal discipline required under the IMF-supported program. The core message for investors is a continued focus on macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, providing a more predictable operating environment. Key measures include aggressive fiscal deficit reduction, a return to single-digit inflation, and significant tax reforms aimed at easing the burden on businesses. The budget signals a transition from crisis management to a foundation for private sector-led growth.

Key Macroeconomic Targets (2026)

The government has set clear, measurable targets that underscore its commitment to stability: Indicator 2025 (Estimated/Revised) 2026 (Target) Investor Implication Real GDP Growth 6.3% (H1) At least 4.8% [4] Positive: Indicates sustained economic expansion, though at a more sustainable pace. End-of-Period Inflation 16.6% 9.9% [5] Positive: Return to single-digit inflation enhances purchasing power and reduces business costs. Overall Budget Deficit 2.8% of GDP 2.2% of GDP [6] Positive: Continued fiscal tightening reduces borrowing needs and sovereign risk. Primary Balance N/A 1.5% of GDP (Surplus) [6] Critical: Adherence to this IMF-mandated surplus is key to debt sustainability and program success.

Fiscal Health and Debt Outlook

The budget reinforces the path to fiscal recovery through enhanced revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization.

• Revenue Mobilization: The government targets GH¢268.1 billion in Total Revenue and Grants [7]. The Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) has declared 2026 the ‘Year of Compliance,’ signaling a non-negotiable push for tax collection efficiency and a broader tax base.
• Expenditure Control: Total Expenditure is projected at GH¢302.5 billion [8]. The focus is on rationalizing spending and clearing domestic arrears, which improves liquidity in the local economy.
• Debt Sustainability: The successful implementation of the budget’s fiscal targets is essential for maintaining the improved debt profile, which saw public debt-to-GDP fall significantly in 2025 [3]. Continued adherence to the 1.5% primary surplus target is the main mechanism for achieving the long-term debt-to-GDP goal.

Policy Impact: Tax and Business Environment

The most direct impact on investors comes from the proposed tax reforms, which are largely favorable to the business community: Tax Measure Detail Investor Benefit Repeal of COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy Full removal of the levy. Cost Reduction: Direct reduction in the cost of goods and services, improving margins. Reduction of Effective VAT Rate Proposed reduction from 21.9% to 20%. Competitiveness: Marginal improvement in price competitiveness and consumer spending. Increased VAT Registration Threshold Raised from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000 [10]. SME Support: Reduces compliance burden for smaller businesses, potentially freeing up capital for growth. Repeal of VAT on Mineral Exploration Removal of VAT on exploration and reconnaissance activities. Sector Specific: Direct incentive for investment in the mining and resource exploration sector.

Strategic Investment Focus

The budget identifies four key pillars for the “Resetting for Growth” agenda, highlighting areas where government spending and policy support will be concentrated:

1. Economic Transformation and Job Creation: Focus on private sector support, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture, suggesting opportunities for value-chain investment.
2. Human and Social Development: Continued investment in health and education infrastructure.
3. Environmental Sustainability: Policies to promote green growth and climate-resilient investments.
4. Governance and Anti-Corruption: Commitment to improving the ease of doing business and public financial management.

Conclusion for Investors

The 2026 Budget Statement is a strong signal of Ghana’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and macroeconomic recovery. The targets are challenging but achievable, provided the government maintains political will and expenditure discipline.

Key Takeaway: The budget provides a stable platform for investment, characterized by a declining fiscal deficit, a projected return to single-digit inflation, and tax reforms that reduce the cost of doing business. Investors should view this budget as a positive indicator of Ghana’s trajectory toward sustained economic health, with particular opportunities emerging in sectors benefiting from the tax relief and the government’s focus on economic transformation.

GHANA MUST WORK AGAIN