Author: Lord Fiifi Quayle 

Date: November 19, 2025

The Minister for Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, presented the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to the Parliament of Ghana on November 13, 2025. This budget, themed “Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation,” is a critical document that outlines the government’s fiscal and economic strategy for the coming year, particularly as the country continues its path of fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program [1] [2].

The central focus of the 2026 Budget is to transition the economy from a period of stabilization to one of sustained, inclusive growth. It aims to build on the economic gains achieved in 2025, which saw a significant decline in inflation and a strengthening of the Cedi [3].

I. Macroeconomic Framework and Targets

The government has set ambitious, yet cautious, macroeconomic targets for 2026, signaling a commitment to fiscal discipline and a return to pre-crisis stability. These targets are crucial for restoring investor confidence and ensuring long term debt sustainability.

The key macroeconomic projections for 2026 are summarized in the table below:

| Indicator | 2025 (Estimated/Revised) | 2026 (Target) | Source |

| :— | :— | :— | :— |

| Real GDP Growth | 6.3% (H1) | At least 4.8% | [4] |

| End-of-Period Inflation | 16.6% | 9.9% | [5] |

| Overall Budget Deficit (Commitment Basis) | 2.8% of GDP | 2.2% of GDP | [6] |

| Primary Balance | N/A | 1.5% of GDP (Surplus) | [6] |

The projected Real GDP Growth of at least 4.8% for 2026, while lower than the 6.3% recorded in the first half of 2025, reflects a realistic expectation given the ongoing fiscal tightening and structural reforms. The target of bringing End-of-Period Inflation down to single digits (9.9%) is a major objective, building on the progress made in 2025 [5].

Crucially, the budget maintains the trajectory of fiscal consolidation. The target to reduce the Overall Budget Deficit to 2.2% of GDP and achieve a Primary Surplus of 1.5% of GDP demonstrates the government’s adherence to the IMF program’s requirements, which mandate a primary surplus to ensure debt sustainability [6].

II. Fiscal Policy and Revenue Measures

The 2026 fiscal framework is designed to increase domestic revenue mobilization while providing targeted relief to businesses and consumers.

A. Revenue and Expenditure Outlook

The government projects a significant increase in both revenue and expenditure for the 2026 fiscal year:

| Indicator | Amount (GH¢ Billion) | % of GDP (Approx.) | Source |

| :— | :— | :— | :— |

| Total Revenue and Grants | 268.1 | N/A | [7] |

| Total Expenditure | 302.5 | 18.9% | [8] |

| Budget Deficit | 34.4 | 2.2% | [6] |

The projected Total Revenue and Grants of GH¢268.1 billion is a key pillar of the budget, supported by a renewed focus on tax compliance. The Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) has declared 2026 the ‘Year of Compliance’ to enhance non-oil revenue collection, which the government aims to raise from 15.1% of GDP in 2025 [9].

B. Tax Reforms and Relief Measures

The budget introduces several significant tax policy changes, primarily focused on Value Added Tax (VAT) and providing relief to the private sector:

1.  Repeal of the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy: This measure is aimed at reducing the cost of doing business and providing relief to consumers.

2.  Reduction of Effective VAT Rate: The effective VAT rate is proposed to be reduced from 21.9% to 20%.

3.  Increased VAT Registration Threshold: The threshold for VAT registration is proposed to be increased from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000, a move that will exempt many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the VAT regime, simplifying their compliance burden [10].

4.  Reintegration of NHIL and GETFund: The National Health Insurance Levy (NHIL) and Ghana Education Trust Fund (GETFund) Levy are to be reintegrated into the VAT base, streamlining the tax structure.

III. Policy Focus: Resetting for Transformation

The budget’s theme is operationalized through four key pillars designed to drive the promised economic transformation:

1.  Economic Transformation and Job Creation: This pillar focuses on accelerating job creation through targeted support for the private sector, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture.

2.  Human and Social Development: The government plans to continue investing in critical social sectors, with a notable emphasis on expanding and modernizing health infrastructure [11].

3.  Environmental Sustainability: Policies under this pillar aim to promote green growth and sustainable resource management.

4.  Governance and Anti-Corruption: This pillar underscores the commitment to improving public financial management, fighting corruption, and ensuring efficient use of public funds.

IV. Analysis and Conclusion

The 2026 Budget Statement is fundamentally a consolidation budget that prioritizes fiscal stability and debt management. The ambitious macroeconomic targets, particularly the primary surplus and the single-digit inflation goal, are a testament to the government’s determination to exit the current economic crisis and complete the IMF program successfully.

The tax reforms are arguably the most impactful policy measures. The repeal of the COVID-19 levy and the reduction in the effective VAT rate are welcome steps that should ease the financial burden on businesses and households. The significant increase in the VAT threshold is a pragmatic measure to support SMEs, which are the backbone of the Ghanaian economy [10].

However, some analysts have questioned whether the budget truly delivers on the “Economic Transformation” part of its theme, arguing that the focus remains heavily on stability and revenue mobilization [12]. While the budget lays a solid foundation for growth by stabilizing the macro-economy, the true measure of its success will be the government’s ability to implement the structural reforms necessary to shift the economy’s productive capacity and create the promised jobs.

In conclusion, the 2026 Budget is a responsible and disciplined fiscal plan that consolidates the gains of 2025. It sets a clear, albeit challenging, path toward macroeconomic stability, making it a crucial step in Ghana’s journey toward long-term economic health.

GHANA MUST WORK AGAIN