By Lord Fiifi Quayle
Every time tensions escalate in the Middle East, the world watches the same drama unfold.
Missiles are discussed. Military alliances are analysed. Intelligence operations dominate headlines. The strategic calculations of great powers fill television studios and diplomatic briefings.
Yet one reality receives far less attention.
When instability erupts in the Middle East, it is not only the region that pays the price. Much of the economic cost is borne thousands of miles away in the developing economies of the Global South.
A spike in oil prices in the Gulf quickly becomes inflation in African markets. A disruption in shipping routes translates into higher food prices across emerging economies. Currency volatility spreads across financial systems that are already vulnerable to external shocks.
In other words, when geopolitical storms erupt in the Middle East, it is often the Global South that absorbs the economic shockwaves.
And yet, the countries most affected are rarely part of the strategic conversation.
For decades, the Middle East has been a theatre for great power competition. During the Cold War, global rivals turned the region into a geopolitical chessboard. In the decades since, shifting alliances and security calculations have continued to shape the region’s political landscape.
But what remains striking is how little the global conversation has evolved.
Policy debates still focus almost exclusively on the strategic interests of major powers. What is missing is a broader discussion about the economic consequences of geopolitical decisions for the rest of the world.
For emerging economies, these consequences are not abstract.
Energy markets remain deeply interconnected with geopolitical stability in the Middle East. Disruptions in the region can trigger chain reactions across global supply systems, financial markets, and food security networks.
The International Monetary Fund have repeatedly warned that geopolitical fragmentation is becoming a major threat to global economic stability. The World Bank has similarly highlighted how developing economies are particularly vulnerable to external shocks caused by geopolitical tensions.
Yet when the strategic future of the Middle East is debated, the voices of those economies remain largely absent.
This silence reflects an outdated global mindset, one that assumes geopolitical stability is a matter primarily for powerful states.
“The world is no longer organised around a single centre of power. The international system is becoming increasingly multipolar, and the economic influence of emerging markets continues to grow.”
With that growth must come a greater role in shaping global discussions about stability.
Africa’s historical perspective offers an important lesson in this regard. Leaders such as Kwame Nkrumah argued that true sovereignty requires the ability of nations to determine their futures free from external domination. That idea was born in the struggle against colonialism, but it carries renewed relevance in today’s geopolitical environment.
The challenge now is not only political independence, but economic resilience in a world shaped by distant conflicts.
This is where the Global South must begin to redefine its role.
Rather than remaining passive observers of geopolitical crises driven by larger powers, emerging economies should actively participate in shaping the frameworks through which global stability is discussed.
This could take many forms.
New platforms for dialogue led by neutral regions. Policy forums that assess the economic consequences of geopolitical conflict. Strategic partnerships focused on insulating developing economies from external shocks.
Africa, with its long tradition of diplomatic non-alignment and its growing role in global economic discussions, could play a particularly important role in convening such conversations.
The stakes are high.
The next major escalation in the Middle East will not only reshape regional politics. It will influence global energy markets, international trade flows, and economic stability across continents.
And when that happens, the consequences will once again be felt most acutely in the developing world.
The question facing the Global South is therefore no longer whether it will be affected by geopolitical crises.
It already is.
The real question NOW is whether it will remain a spectator in debates that shape its economic future or step forward as a voice advocating for a more balanced and stable international order.
Africa Must Begin To Work
African economic strategist, sovereign risk analyst, and public intellectual. Author of Pricing Uncertainty. Creator of the Africa Macro Intelligence Terminal.